Can South Africa win the World Cup? Yes, for a few reasons… but a couple of things need to fall in place as well.
There are 4 reasons why they can pull this off, again.
The first one is their collection of ridiculously massive and abrasive players. They wear down opposition teams with their physicality and take them back a few yards both on attack and defense.
The second one is their bomb squad. They don’t get weaker when their bench hits the field. It is the same level of player, just with renewed energy.
The third one is their front row. They are always able to field two sets of front rows in a game of equal quality. In most cases, they dominate the scrums and there are always a few scrum penalties in their favor, not to mention the penalties Marx gets at the rucks.
The fourth one is something that South Africa is not known for. An unpredictable and exciting attack from the back 3. They have a few combinations that they can deploy but the ones I would love to see most in the World Cup would be Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse, and Willie le Roux.
So far we have not seen a cohesive effort for even 60 minutes of a game, much less 80. If they can put it together for 75+ minutes of a game, they are going to make it very difficult for the opposition.
They were able to evolve in the 2019 World Cup and they are building up to it.
The many random combinations they are playing might look wreckless but I believe it is focused on giving at least 2.5 squads a good run before they select their final World Cup group.
Can New Zealand win the World Cup? Based on their steadily improving form, I wouldn’t count them out.
There are a few key things that count in their favor in my opinion.
Their lock combination of Retallick and Barrett is evolving into a Matfield / Botha type of partnership. The All Blacks have lacked an enforcer of the quality of Brad Thorn for a few years but over the past weekend, he started showing it.
There was the crunching tackling but the way he handled Nic White, was priceless!
Not mentioning Ardie Savea would be a sin. He embodies every single drop of passion that the All Blacks play with.
Aaron Smith, the best 9 in my opinion, ensures that delivery is better to his runners than it is for any other nation. His box kicks and the inside supporting lines he runs are also meticulous.
The excitement will however come from the flyhalf and false 12 combo that New Zealand runs so well. They are good at interchanging the flyhalf and fullback or adding the fullback as an extra 12 to the backline to open up defenses.
The deadly Beaden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Damien McKenzie, and Richie Mo’unga are going to rip apart quite a few defenses.
Their patience in absorbing pressure and turning it into a counterattack is going to make it difficult for most other teams. They showed it against the Wallabies again in the 2nd half of the Bledisloe Cup.
The Eddie Jones brand of running hard and creatively in the closer channels had the All Blacks on the back foot. They turned it over in the 57th minute and scored the 58th… and then put the Wallabies to bed with two more tries.
Looking forward to seeing a dominant display from the All Blacks and the biggest indicator of where they are would be their opening game against France.
They have been the absolute dominating force in World Rugby over the past 2 years winning 13/14 games and only losing to Ireland, the #2 team, since the start of 2022.
They have been scoring tries at will and have been amazing to watch.
Their forwards have been dominating other teams at the set pieces but they have also had a massive impact in rucks and mauls.
Their tight defense has also not allowed other teams to score freely.
Their mastermind behind the team’s outstanding performances, Fabien Galthie, has turned this team into a world-beater. He brought his passion for the game over from his playing days. He has also coached Stade Francais, Montpellier, and Toulon, winning the Top 14 with the first two teams. He has been in charge of France since 2019
The team is also star-studded with monsters like Julien Marchand and Uini Antonio up front and Gael Fickou and Antoine Dupont in the backline. We need to pause for a second though on Dupont. He has been their captain for a while now and many see him as the best scrumhalf in the world.
I do believe though that their biggest advantage will be homefield advantage.
Two iconic examples are the 1995 and 2011 World Cups. South Africa had no chance in that tournament but found inspiration from somewhere to become the unlikely winners!
In 2011 the All Blacks lifted the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time in 24 years when they played at home.
Will the cup that Dupont holds at the end of this World Cup be a different one than this? I wouldn’t be too shocked.
They are the favorite in my opinion and not just for the obvious reason that they are currently the #1 team in the world.
There are a few things that play in their favor:
They have won 14/16 games since the start of 2022. Their losses were at the start of 2022 to France and a loss to New Zealand in New Zealand… but they won ⅔ in New Zealand.
Andy Farell is a settled coach and has been running things since 2020. He has an especially dominant group of forwards with Tadgh Furlong being the #1 prop in the world and Josh van der Flier, the 2022 World Rugby Player of the Year!
What they have done exceptionally well is to not play exciting rugby. It has not been exciting to the casual observer but what they do is a thing of beauty!
The first taste of this came at the start of 2018 in a game against France. Since then they have been on a tear but that game has been how they have pulled off many narrow wins.
The team went through 41 phases, gaining about 30 meters to give Jonny Sexton the chance to put up a high percentage drop kick almost 3 minutes into stoppage time. What would have been a 12-13 loss, turned into a 15-13 win.
Can they win? Yes.
Will it be pretty? Probably not.
But which team will turn down a World Cup in favor of having played entertaining rugby?
This is going to be the most entertaining and unpredictable group at the World Cup!
If someone were to ask who would be the top 2 teams in this group 4 years ago, the answer would have been simple: Wales and Australia.
That was then and this is now and this group is wide open!
4 of the 5 teams can realistically top Pool C and it would only require a single upset for that to happen.
Let’s have a look at the teams:
Portugal – they have been out of the World Cup for a while now but they picked up an interesting result in mid-2022. They lost by 31-38 against Italy, which gives them a bit of credibility!
Will they slay one of the other 4? Not likely. They will be hoping for competitive games and to still be in it in the last 10 minutes of the game and then hope to pull off an upset.
Wales – the once dominant 6 nations team has fallen from grace BUT they can still cause an upset. They beat South Africa. Beat Scotland a week after Scotland beat England. Lost by 4 points respectively to England and France in a week’s time… but had some embarrassing losses to Italy and Georgia.
They have however been impressive in the last few World Cups. Not sure though that they will be able to make the step up for the 2023 edition.
If they make it through the group stage, it is likely going to be on the back of a few VERY narrow wins.
Georgia – they bring the power! With the majority of their players playing in France professionally and their u20s getting better at their championships every year, they are emerging as a contender! They picked up wins against Uruguay, Italy, and Wales in recent times!
I am really looking forward to seeing them pull off a potential upset against either Wales or Australia.
They can beat Fiji but will need to beat one of the other two to get through. It would be a massive statement from them.
Fiji – they are going to entertain all over the park! They have also benefited from the same World Rugby ruling as Tonga and Samoa. They will be competing against an unsettled Wales and Australia and I will not be shocked if they cause at least one upset.
With the type of game they play and the amazing team that they will bring to the tournament, they would just need a few kind bounces of the ball to get them through to the knockouts.
It would be a massive achievement for the island nation and help their 15s team to live up to the non-stop hype their 7s team delivers.
Australia – they have been a far cry from the sides that won the World Cup, made it to the finals, and won the Bledisloe Cup in the early 2000s. They have enough high-caliber players but in a very incohesive group.
Their ace: Eddie Jones. He worked miracles with England and if anyone can turn Australia around it is going to be him.
Their first few games of the Rugby Championship have been woeful but you can’t read too much into that.
They will be a completely different and improved team by the time the World Cup kicks off.
My prediction for this group is by far the most uncertain one!
I will go:
Australia
Fiji
Wales
Georgia
Portugal
…and that top 4 can almost be in any order.
No one is safe and that makes this my favorite group in the whole tournament!
Similar to Pool C, this one will be a 4 horse race.
A few years ago it would have been safe to say England top of the group, Argentina 2nd.
That is not going to be the case if Japan or Samoa have any say in it.
Here is how the teams line up in Pool D
Chile – it is their first World Cup and they will be loving the experience. Their goal is to pick up a shock win against either Japan or Samoa but it isn’t very likely.
They did shock the USA to get to the tournament, so who knows…
Samoa – hasn’t picked up any impressive wins since the start of 2022. They will however be strengthened in the same way as Fiji and Tonga with ex-international players switching allegiances to them.
On a good day, they can push either England or Argentina close but their World Cup will probably revolve around beating Japan and Chile
Japan – knows how to pull off a shock win. They have beaten both South Africa and Ireland in the last two World Cups.
If anyone is going to shock Argentina or England, it will be them
Argentina – they are a perennial powerhouse. They haven’t been a well-oiled machined in years but they have picked up some notable scalps in recent history.
They beat New Zealand in New Zealand last year and also beat England, Scotland, and Australia.
Their top players play in Europe and will be up to the conditions in France
England – no one has blown as hot and cold as England in recent times. They pick up impressive wins and then have baffling losses.
They have had two years of horrible 6 Nations tournaments and were beaten by South Africa and Argentina at the end of 2022. Somehow they were able to salvage a draw against New Zealand though!
They don’t lack the talent but definitely lack the cohesion.
The stupidest move in a World Cup year has been to drop Eddie Jones.
As a result, this might shape up to be a very strange group
I do believe though that it is likely to end as follows:
