This will be the decider of who goes through to the quarter-final with England.
There is an unlikely permutation where Samoa can still make it if these two teams draw but that is a bit of a stretch.
If there is a draw in this game then it would be Argentina going through on a points difference, except if Japan gets a 4-try bonus point and Argentina doesn’t.
The most likely outcome will be a win for either to determine that last spot.
Japan stands a chance to reach their 2nd quarter-final in a row and Argentina can spectacularly crash out for a 2nd time in a row.
The margins between these two teams are however exceptionally close at the moment.
It is true that Argentina sits a couple of spots above Japan on the rankings but Argentina has been less than convincing over the past few months.
Japan, on the other hand, started the year with loss after loss and only picked up their first win of the year at the World Cup. Since then they have steadily improved and are real contenders to get to the quarter-finals.
When Japan is on song, they are able to carve out wins against most teams in the world, but they lack strike runners to consistently penetrate the defenses of their opponents.
This Argentinian team has certainly turned their performance around in comparison with that first half-hearted and flawed effort against England at this year’s tournament.
Although Japan has a lot going for them, I believe that Argentina will take the win.
They are more battle-hardened from playing against South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia in the Rugby Championship every year and should book their place in the quarter-finals as a result.
Two of the most iconic teams in world rugby are lining up for battle like no other.
There are so many weird and wonderful things that can come from this match; Ireland can crash out of the World Cup – depending on the result. Scotland can crash out of the World Cup – depending on the result. South Africa can crash out of the World Cup, depending on the result.
That being said we certainly have a most interesting clash on our hands.
Scotland has shown the enterprising type of rugby they can play.
Their inspirational captain Jamie Ritchie should be fit to play against Ireland and his input along with every single forward would have to be the catalyst for Scotland to have a chance. Their scrums are competitive and they have some of the best lineout athletes.
In the backline, Finn Russell will create opportunities with his sheer genius and he possesses a host of dangerous runners that he can set up to gain territorial advantage and produce a series of spectacular tries.
The Scottish goal-kicking has also been solid throughout the tournament and they can bargain on picking up points if Ireland were to infringe in their own half.
But then there’s Ireland.
Ireland didn’t become the number one team in the world because they were lucky or other teams were bad – they’re there because they are brilliant.
You can talk about their lineouts, scrums, ruck speed, goal-kicking, and many other facets of their game; in short, they are brilliant and almost flawless.
There are three things that stand out for me:
They always put in a defensive effort that chokes the life out of any team’s attack.
They are more disciplined than any other team by far. They have something to the tune of 2 yellow cards in 26 matches during a World Cup where yellow cards have been dished out like free candy at the fair.
They are tenacious in their ability to adapt and find a way. This is often on the back of a change in tactics at halftime for most teams and I do believe that Andy Farrell plays a big part in this way. Their brain trust has the ability to adapt based on the situations presented at different times in a game.
Scotland remains to have a chance, but, sadly, they will need to get through Fortress Ireland for that elusive win.
In some of the Pools, the #1 team is already set and has booked their place in the next round.
But there are not any Pools where the 2nd quarter-finalist is a foregone conclusion. There is even a Pool where it can technically be any 1 of 3 teams!
Pool A
Before the tournament, people would have simply said that it was going to be France and New Zealand as 1 and 2. The order is less important than the certainty that they will be in the next round.
Based on the form and the class of these two teams they should still finish accordingly, but, with one game left for each of them, the current points table looks as follows:
France – 13
New Zealand – 10
Italy – 10
France and New Zealand are untouchable in points difference but they still need to get through their last matches.
New Zealand plays the spirited Uruguayans and should beat them to book their place.
France plays Italy though who have pushed them close in the past 2 years. If Italy wins and France doesn’t get a bonus point, then France is out of the World Cup!
If France gets a bonus point, then Italy also needs to win with a bonus point to knock France out.
Unlikely but possible
Pool B
The last weekend’s clash between Ireland and Scotland can result in Ireland or South Africa sensationally missing out on the quarter-finals!
For Ireland to miss out, Scotland needs to beat them with a bonus point victory and a margin of more than 21 points.
For South Africa to miss out, Scotland would need to beat Ireland with a bonus point victory and a margin of more than 21 points and Ireland should also score 4 tries for a bonus point.
Then, based on their head-to-head result against South Africa, Ireland will go through and leave South Africa in the 3rd position.
Pool C
It is all in Fiji’s hands. They simply need a bonus point from the game to end on the same log points as Australia and will then go through based on their head-to-head result.
A win in their last game against Portugal will put them through regardless of the margin. Interestingly enough it is also the very last game of the Pool rounds
Pool D
Samoa would be the first one to have a potential outside chance of getting to the next round. To get to 11 log points, they need to beat England with a bonus point victory. Then they need to hope for a draw between Japan and Argentina. So that one isn’t likely
The game between Japan and Argentina should be the decider. The simple answer is the team that wins, will make it through to the quarter-finals with England.
Overall this is amazing!
I personally think that this is absolutely wonderful for the game of rugby. To go into the final week of the Rugby World Cup and not have all of the quarter-finalists decided, is amazing. It has turned this last week into an amazing roller coaster ride for everyone involved!
Italy briefly sat at the top of pool A after the first two rounds but has not moved an inch since then.
After being absolutely mauled by the New Zealanders last week, they will need to regroup and find strength from somewhere to put up a fight against France.
Italy has been the perennial underperformer of the 6 Nations but has also managed to cause a couple of spectacular upsets over the past 5 years.
They are definitely capable but they don’t believe in themselves yet and struggle in putting together 80 minutes of brilliant rugby. Flashes of brilliance can bring you victory on some days, but against France, this will not be enough. There would need to be a shift in mindset and approach and they need to play this game as if their lives depended on it.
Every ruck, tackle, kick, scrum, lineout, and pass Italy can master on the field will count on the day. It will take exceptional focus as they have never done before.
France, on the other hand, has been phenomenal. They have not shown any real signs of weakness, except for cutting it too close against Uruguay. That is the result that Italy should take some heart from.
Despite France playing without their captain Dupont, they still have a lot of firepower across the park.
They are ruthlessly brilliant and a far more structured team than the ones we have known in years gone by. They have now combined flair and skill with well-structured game management.
This, along with playing in the World Cup in your home country will make this a near impossible task for Italy.
But there are still 80 minutes of rugby that must first be played…
Another week of entertaining World Cup Rugby is over and the results have caused a couple of clear shifts in who will make it to the quarter-finals
We will get into all the permutations in the next video to give you a good idea of where this is all going.
It was great to see a number of the smaller unions really stepping up and delivering promising results.
The Uruguay vs. Namibia game offered an entertaining start to the week and was a good game for both teams. Namibia were able to play more of the rugby the way they wanted to play it without the onslaughts they endured in previous weeks. Uruguay came away with the deserved victory though after showing so much heart and passion in their previous games.
The Japan vs. Samoa game was a hard-fought game between a well-disciplined professional team versus a team of magnificent athletes with massive potential. At the end of the day, it was Japan’s well-drilled squad that got them the 28-22 victory on the day to keep them in quarter-final contention.
The New Zealand vs. Italy game promised to be a slightly more competitive affair but the All Blacks had other ideas. They blew away Italy to make a massive statement about what they are capable of and showcased their silky interplay at times.
Argentina vs. Chile also turned out to be a one-sided affair with a 59-5 win in favour of Argentina. The convincing bonus point victory was crucial for Argentina both in terms of log points and much-needed confidence going into the final week.
Fiji vs. Georgia offered a fair deal of excitement for a low-scoring game. Georgia played a lot more to their potential and very nearly stole it at the death. It was good to see Georgia come into their own and play well-structured rugby. Fiji didn’t play their strongest team but was able to rest some of their stars while giving a good amount of game time to the rest of their squad.
Scotland vs. Romania saw Romania suffer another massive defeat. Scotland needed to rack up the points to get the bonus point and set up a very exciting last week match-up with Ireland. It was a mission accomplished with their 84-0 victory.
Australia vs. Portugal was one of the strangest games in a long time. The 34-14 encounter in favor of Australia delivered entertaining rugby from both teams at times but also fell completely flat at other times. It was clear to see that it was a game between two teams that were clearly out of contention to get to the next round.
South Africa vs. Tonga was a hard-fought affair with a Tonga team delivering brutality at the contact points. You could see a lot of battered and bruised South African players at the end of the game and they clearly had to fight for every single one of their 49 points. Tonga has clearly grown as a team, and as the tournament progressed they were starting to come together. In this game, they played as a team.
Biggest Losers in Week 4
It would be harsh to really give it to anyone this week but if I had to pick, it would be Italy. The Italians have shown great resilience as a team over the past few years and pulled off a couple of shocking wins. For much of the clash against New Zealand it looked like they were playing scared and as a result never really gave themselves a chance.
They could take Uruguay’s game against France as an example of what can be done. The size of the dog doesn’t matter but rather the size of the fight in that dog.
Biggest Winners in Week 4
There were many of those. The easy ones to mention are New Zealand, Argentina, Scotland, and South Africa which just got the business done.
But I felt there was more impressive form coming from the other teams. Regardless of winning or losing, the fight, the heart, and really the essence of the game we love, were visibly on display by a few teams this weekend.
I want to give massive credit to Uruguay, Namibia, Japan, Samoa, Fiji, Georgia, and Tonga.
If the way they played is part of the future of their rugby, then we are in for many more years of breathtaking rugby.
Now we need the sponsors and World Rugby to step in and support these teams every single year to ensure we build up rugby globally so we enjoy this type of rugby all year round.
Playing to get penalties in a game might sound very strange but it is actually not so uncommon.
The two most common areas where teams try to get these penalties are at rucks and scrums.
Over the years, scrums have lost some of their effectiveness as a first-phase attacking platform. There are still ways to score from it but lineouts have overtaken scrums in a big way in this department.
Scrums have become a great way to earn penalties and when you get these in the opposition half, you have multiple shots at goal. This is in part why teams work so hard on their scrums and why the glorious big boys, the props, are so sought after in Europe’s top leagues.
One commentator referred to South Africa’s Frans Malherbe as “the goose that lays scrum penalty golden eggs”. Although this is true of Frans Malherbe, it can also be said of a couple of other top props in international rugby.
Scrums are hotly contested with 800-900kgs of forwards from both sides fighting it out as a well-coordinated team. This arm wrestle is also a way of asserting dominance and often sets the tone for a lot of the other phases of play on the field.
Rucks become a little more technical but the easiest way to play toward a penalty at ruck time is patience. Teams often get over-excited and want to score with every phase, while the best teams are great at playing the waiting game.
They set up a number of rucks in succession with the goal of pulling in defenders and creating space for players outside.
Being patient at ruck time also has the added benefit of increasing the likelihood of a defender infringing. At every next ruck, the defenders become a little bit more impatient and desperate and this often results in someone falling over the ball, contesting when it is illegal, or going offside.
If teams are aware of these two ways of earning penalties, they can exploit them to get shots at goal or to earn great relief for their teams. In the heat of the battle, focus and patience are needed and it will likely pay off in more ways than one.
