Super Rugby

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There is a solid argument to be made for 4 teams to win the World Cup… and then 3 long shots.

There are the two Southern Hemisphere contenders: the All Blacks and South Africa.

…and there are the two Northern Hemisphere contenders: Ireland and France.

The long shots in my opinion are Argentina, Fiji, and Samoa. England, Australia, and Wales are just too bad at the moment.

Let’s focus on the real contenders.

They all have their strengths and they all have their weaknesses but there is one thing that sets two teams apart: grinding out a win at all cost at a World Cup. 

Those two are the All Blacks and South Africa. 

What could potentially happen is that they will face each other in the quarter-finals already! If this is the case, the winner of that game will likely win the World Cup. 

The Pool A & B permutations will dish up two of the best quarter-final games in the history of the tournament. 

The two winners from that quarter-final are almost guaranteed to play the final. 

I do think though that the teams in the semis from Pool C & D will be two out of these three teams: Argentina, Fiji, and Samoa. 

They will play the Pool A & B quarterfinal winners in the semis and will probably sadly only get to the 3rd and 4th playoff. 

If one of those 3 make it to the final, I honestly hope that they win the whole thing! 

The more realistic outcome however is that it would be teams from Pool A & B contesting the final. 

I think the end result, in reverse order, will be: 

#3 Argentina

#2 France

#1 South Africa

Why you might ask? 

South Africa are the best team on the planet when it comes to a war of attrition. They can win with a combination of brute force and a bit of flair as they did in the warm-up game against New Zealand OR they can just pummel opponents into submission. 

Tournaments of this scale are rarely won on the back of expansive rugby. There will be opportunities for it but that will be created on the back of serious hard and consistent effort on attack and especially concentration on defense.

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The opening game of the World Cup is shaping up to be the most epic clash we have seen in World Rugby for a long time. 

France has had an almost perfect run into the World Cup with mostly top performances. New Zealand has had a weird 18 months with a series loss to Ireland, 2 losses to Argentina, and a pummeling by South Africa this past weekend. 

Still, it would be exceptionally foolish to think they will not be brilliant at the World Cup. 

But France has the odds stacked in their favor. They are playing at home, led by Dupont (who most people consider to be the best 9 in the world), and with a coach with a winning record that is 15% higher than the 2nd place French national coach. 

Their Achilles heal is the loss of the dynamic Romain Ntamack at 10, which might disrupt their attacking flair. If they overcome that, which they should, they are going to be phenomenal! 

If you look at the All Black first choice 22 and the whole squad for that matter, most rugby enthusiasts would go into battle with them with a lot of confidence. They have not been the team that they have been in past years but they have an amazing rugby culture. There is pride and an understanding of what it is to wear that black jersey as a player. 

If they can tap into that and pull together, they can walk away with the win. They will also grow in confidence and strength as the tournament goes on. 

In this game though, it should be France walking away with the win. It might be the most brutal opening game in the World Cup we have ever seen but it is a mouthwatering prospect!

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Andy Farrell had an illustrious career as a player, mostly playing rugby league but also had a decent stint in union. His the father of the controversial Owen Farrell but that is not what we are here to talk about. 

In his league career, he played for Wigan from 1991-2004 making 370 appearances and scoring an insane 3,135 points! He was also capped for Great Britain and England for a combined total of 45 times. 

His union carer was spent at Saracens from 2005-2009 where he made 28 appearances and was capped 8 times for England in 2007 where he also earned a World Cup runners-up medal

During his coaching career, he has been involved only with top teams. He spent 2 years with Saracens from 2010 to 2012. In 2011 he became an assistant coach for England up until 2015 and was the defence coach for the British & Irish Lions in 2013.

His coaching career in Ireland started as assistant to the iconic Joe Schmidt in 2016 and he then took over as head coach in 2020. 

Joe Schmidt left him a really strong team with amazing structures in place. He took a little while to settle in but has only grown from strength to strength. 

He has also had the best winning record of any Ireland coach since rugby turned professional in 1995. There was a short stint of 2 games for interim coach Les Kiss in 2013 where he had a 100% record but that doesn’t really count. 

The great Joe Schmidt had a 72% winning record while Andy Farrell’s record is nearly 82%! His Ireland team has had 31/38 wins and this included the Triple Crown in 2022 and 2023 and both a 6 Nations win and Grand Slam in 2023.

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Samoa are looking better and better with each passing week leading up to the World Cup. 

Their game against Ireland was especially impressive. On paper, they should not have come close but were actually unlucky to lose to the world #1. 

They were in the game all the way to the end with 3 silly mistakes costing them their chances in the final 4 minutes. 

If those types of mistakes can be overcome, they do have enough skill and heart in that team to cause upsets. 

In pool D, it looks like they are the most likely ones to go through with Argentina. England is dreadful and they aren’t showing any signs of turning that around. Japan has also been on a multiple-game losing streak and is a far cry from the iconic team from the 2019 World Cup. 

Their squad was also bolstered by the World Rugby ruling in favor of the island nations which saw many native Samoans returning after stints with top other international teams. 

Will they get to the quarter-finals? Probably.

Will they get to the semis? That is less likely, sadly.

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Everyone loves Fijian rugby! It is played beautifully with passion and joy. 

Going into the World Cup everyone who likes Fiji from loyal Fijian fans to those who just love rugby would have thought “What if?”. 

That “what if?” became far less far-fetched after the past 2 weekends. 

In the game against France, they held their own but were still outclassed. 

In the game against England, they put together a better performance and came away with a historic win! Yes, England were poor for large parts of the game but there was something that changed in how Fiji played. 

They kept calm, made the right decisions for the most part, and played really well-structured rugby where it was needed at lineouts, scrums, rucks, mauls, and when they needed to exit out of their own 22. 

They have locks and flankers that run like the centres of most countries and they possess a thrilling backline. This all sits on the back of a calm and collected flyhalf and this forms a very promising combination. 

Wales and the Wallabies are looking dreadful and Fiji will likely go through in this group. Depending on where they might have a favorable quarter-final draw and a historic semi-final appearance for the Islanders is definitely on the cards.

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Fabien Galthie has had a good run with France since joining the National Team as vice-head coach in 2019. 

As a player, he played most of his career at Colomiers from 1985-1995 when they were an amateur side and then from 1995-2001 when they turned professional. He was at Western Province for a season in 1995 and then played 31 games for Stade Francais from 2001-2003. 

He was also a French international player from 1991-2003 making 64 appearances and scoring 49 points. 

As a coach, he has been most impressive with stints at the top clubs in France since 2004. 

From 2004-2008 he coached Stade Francais, making it to both the Top 14 and Heineken Cup finals. He didn’t win either but his Stade Francais team eventually won the Top 14 in 2007. 

He joined Argentina as part of their coaching staff during their end-of-the-year tour of Europe in November and December of 2008.

From 2010 to 2014 he coached Montpellier where he reached the Top 14 final in his first year. 

From 2017-2018 he coached Toulon and was then appointed to the position of vice-head coach of the national team in 2019. He maintained this position under Jacques Brunel, until 2020 when he took over the reins as head coach.

Since then he turned France into a formidable force. 

He has won 31/39 games for a 79% win percentage. His win percentage has been 100% against Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa and Wales. 

Going into a World Cup, at home in France, you can’t ask for a better record or a more patriotic and dynamic coach.