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The controversies around a yellow and a red card often make headlines and it is often not officiated correctly in the heat of the moment. 

There are however clear rules from World Rugby on how this should be applied and this is something I feel there should be a little more time spent on during matches. 

With a yellow card, I think the decision can be taken a bit quicker and on the spot but with all red cards there should be careful consideration. The new way in which yellow cards are referred to the TMOs for consideration of upgrading to a red card is a step in the right direction. 

It is however sometimes a little difficult to understand why certain cards are issued and we will have a quick look at both of them. There are some mitigating factors that might come into play but we aren’t going to try and touch on all of them. 

The yellow cards are the easier ones to adjudicate for the most part. Players get issued yellow cards in the following situations: 

1. A professional foul – when there is a clear opportunity for a team to score a try and they are stopped by someone performing an illegal action. That can be pulling down an advancing maul, going blatantly offside, or slowing down the ball.
   
2. Repeated infringements – this usually starts with the referee warning a team after they have conceded penalties for the same reason in short succession. 
   
3. The tackle situations are a little more difficult:
   
   1. High tackle – if the tackle starts high around a player’s neck, it should be a yellow card. Sometimes a player starts lower and their arms slide up and that usually only ends up being a penalty, but there are exceptions.
      
   2. Contact with the head – when there is contact with another player’s head, then it should be an automatic yellow card. This is the exception we spoke about. If it is dangerous, then it should be a red card.
      
   3. Neckroll – not strictly a tackle but similar. In a ruck when a player is jackling over the ball an opposing player can move them off the ball on their shoulders or arms. Sometimes the defending players wrap their arms around a player’s neck and twist them out of the ruck with a neck roll. This should always be an instant yellow.
      
   4. Taking out a player in the air – if a player is taken out in the air, either in a lineout or from a kick it can result in a yellow card. That is if the player is not brought down safely to the ground. If the player goes past the horizontal and lands on their neck or head, it can be upgraded to a red card.

Red cards are just the stricter application of these laws in many instances and it usually gets applied depending on the severity of the incident. 

The blatant incidents of foul play get the red cards as they should. 

When there is a punch thrown or there is reckless contact with an opposing player’s head, then the red should always come out. 

If a player is taken out in the air and the other player doesn’t come down safely, it often results in a red. Especially if the other player didn’t really have a chance to realistically compete for the ball. This is applied mostly to kicks but I would like to see this happen as often in lineouts as well if a player gets pulled down. 

Another obvious red card is issued when a player receives two yellow cards in a match, but there are indeed gray areas in applying this rule.  

One instance occurs in the tackle situation when match officials try to judge the intent while taking mitigating circumstances into consideration. A clearer red card is where a player doesn’t use their arms, as was the case in the most recent controversial Owen Farrel tackle. There was no noticeable effort to wrap his arms around the other player and he tackled with an upward motion. He has been playing rugby for many years and knows the proper tackling techniques. His actions were appropriately dealt with by the match officials. 

The more difficult calls come often come down to unfortunate timing or a simple misjudgment. The most recent incident involving Tom Curry stands out as a prime example where changing the call from a yellow to a red card was considered a bit harsh by many. The player was coming down after jumping from the ball and Curry had no intent, in my opinion, to put in an illegal tackle. It was strictly judged according to the law with no mitigating circumstances and a clear collision of heads. 

There will still be many such problematic situations for the officials to deal with over the next few weeks and there will be a spotlight on all calls throughout the tournament. I hope they get the vast majority of it right though and that it doesn’t negatively influence the outcome of games.

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You can’t ask for more drama than this past weekend at a Rugby World Cup. It was unpredictable, the first few upsets happened, and the first controversies were up for discussion. 

For now, we will just look at the highlights from the weekend with the biggest winners and losers. Not in terms of scores, but where that really puts them in the tournament and whether they took a step up or missed an opportunity. 

I want to start by giving massive credit to the smaller nations for how well they played. The efforts from Chile, Namibia, and Romania were full of heart, bravery, and just a joy to watch. 

The France vs. New Zealand game was the ideal start to a World Cup. It was intense and the French were impressive, though they weren’t clinical. What was a worrying sign from the game was the constant senseless kicking. The kicks weren’t very purposeful and there were a couple of passages of play with 4 or 5 kicks in a row back and forth. 

Most games went according to the script but there were two games that didn’t. I am of course referring to the England vs. Argentina and the Wales vs. Fiji games, but we will get to them in a bit. 

A game that could have caused an upset, was the Australia vs. Georgia game but the occasion was clearly too big for Georgia. They lost against an Australian team that has had the most torrid run in the recent past of Wallaby rugby. 

But let’s look at the biggest losers and then winners of the weekend as well as two refereeing issues.

I think in 3rd place is Georgia. Yes, they were unlikely to win but they have been impressive for a number of months and should have pushed the Wallabies all the way. They just never got going.

New Zealand sits in the 2nd place. They had their two flashes of the “All Blacks that used to be” at the start of each half but they weren’t present for the rest of the game. In terms of skill and technical ability, they have the right players and the right coaching. What has steadily become absent during the course of the past 2 years is the All Blacks rugby culture. The pride in wearing an All-Black jersey, the accompanying air of confidence, the togetherness of the team, and the fighting spirit to make every New Zealander proud seems to have all but disappeared. They need to have a serious reset of what it means to play All-Black rugby and I suspect the rest will fall in place once again. 

Argentina was the biggest loser on the weekend. They were playing an England side that hadn’t been on such a low in years, yet they weren’t able to get going. They were disjointed at best and in their efforts they equalled the most handling mistakes by a side at a World Cup. They dropped the ball a record-equalling 14 times in the game and that pretty much summed up their day. 

The biggest winners are easier to talk about. 

France and South Africa put up the performances you expected and got through their games with the wins they wanted from the nerve-wracking opening games. 

Australia finally won a game in 2023 and it will be a good platform for them to build from. 

England has vastly improved from what we have seen in the past 2 years, despite not being perfect. When a side has lost that often, it is difficult to believe in your systems and in each other. The mental boost they will get from it will however shake up their pool and the upcoming results

The two biggest winners of the weekend in my opinion were Wales and Fiji. I know Fiji lost but in my opinion, they still won. 

For years everyone has enjoyed seeing Fiji play in their exciting signature way. Their game against Wales and their 2nd-half comeback, especially, showed that they were far more than just fun to watch. They are far more disciplined overall, their phase play is up to par and they are in it for the full game. 

On the other hand, you have Wales. They took a serious beating from Fiji but stood up to it with great bravery. When the few chances presented themselves, they were able to turn it into points but their defense stands out. They had a prop that put in over 20 tackles in the game by the time he left the field after 45 minutes!

The Josh Adams tackle on a rampaging Selestino Ravutaumada summed up the attitude of that Welsh team. 

That brings us to two refereeing issues. So far the refereeing has really been of a high standard. They have been both strict and allowed the game to flow in many aspects. 

However, the question of consistency is one that raises a few eyebrows. 

The first one of course is the red card that Curry received in the England vs. Argentina game. If you go strictly according to the rules, then it is a red card. If you think about the intent and his body position, I would have thought that there would have been more logic applied and that it would have remained yellow at worst. 

If you go on that ruling then Jesse Kriel is in deep trouble as he started with the wrong body position in his head-to-head clash. 

The second incident was from the Wales vs. Fiji game. Wales kept infringing on their own line with penalty after penalty and they kept getting warned without a yellow card. The first time Fiji did that on their own line it was an instant yellow card with no warning. 

The commentators mentioned that it was because of a professional foul. If you have played rugby before, you would notice that the penalties from the Welsh team all had an element of “a professional foul” to them. 

Had the incidents been handled differently, it could have influenced the outcomes. I believe the referees will collectively be looking into this and we will see a great improvement in the decisions for the rest of the tournament.

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There is a solid argument to be made for 4 teams to win the World Cup… and then 3 long shots.

There are the two Southern Hemisphere contenders: the All Blacks and South Africa.

…and there are the two Northern Hemisphere contenders: Ireland and France.

The long shots in my opinion are Argentina, Fiji, and Samoa. England, Australia, and Wales are just too bad at the moment.

Let’s focus on the real contenders.

They all have their strengths and they all have their weaknesses but there is one thing that sets two teams apart: grinding out a win at all cost at a World Cup. 

Those two are the All Blacks and South Africa. 

What could potentially happen is that they will face each other in the quarter-finals already! If this is the case, the winner of that game will likely win the World Cup. 

The Pool A & B permutations will dish up two of the best quarter-final games in the history of the tournament. 

The two winners from that quarter-final are almost guaranteed to play the final. 

I do think though that the teams in the semis from Pool C & D will be two out of these three teams: Argentina, Fiji, and Samoa. 

They will play the Pool A & B quarterfinal winners in the semis and will probably sadly only get to the 3rd and 4th playoff. 

If one of those 3 make it to the final, I honestly hope that they win the whole thing! 

The more realistic outcome however is that it would be teams from Pool A & B contesting the final. 

I think the end result, in reverse order, will be: 

#3 Argentina

#2 France

#1 South Africa

Why you might ask? 

South Africa are the best team on the planet when it comes to a war of attrition. They can win with a combination of brute force and a bit of flair as they did in the warm-up game against New Zealand OR they can just pummel opponents into submission. 

Tournaments of this scale are rarely won on the back of expansive rugby. There will be opportunities for it but that will be created on the back of serious hard and consistent effort on attack and especially concentration on defense.

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The opening game of the World Cup is shaping up to be the most epic clash we have seen in World Rugby for a long time. 

France has had an almost perfect run into the World Cup with mostly top performances. New Zealand has had a weird 18 months with a series loss to Ireland, 2 losses to Argentina, and a pummeling by South Africa this past weekend. 

Still, it would be exceptionally foolish to think they will not be brilliant at the World Cup. 

But France has the odds stacked in their favor. They are playing at home, led by Dupont (who most people consider to be the best 9 in the world), and with a coach with a winning record that is 15% higher than the 2nd place French national coach. 

Their Achilles heal is the loss of the dynamic Romain Ntamack at 10, which might disrupt their attacking flair. If they overcome that, which they should, they are going to be phenomenal! 

If you look at the All Black first choice 22 and the whole squad for that matter, most rugby enthusiasts would go into battle with them with a lot of confidence. They have not been the team that they have been in past years but they have an amazing rugby culture. There is pride and an understanding of what it is to wear that black jersey as a player. 

If they can tap into that and pull together, they can walk away with the win. They will also grow in confidence and strength as the tournament goes on. 

In this game though, it should be France walking away with the win. It might be the most brutal opening game in the World Cup we have ever seen but it is a mouthwatering prospect!

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Andy Farrell had an illustrious career as a player, mostly playing rugby league but also had a decent stint in union. His the father of the controversial Owen Farrell but that is not what we are here to talk about. 

In his league career, he played for Wigan from 1991-2004 making 370 appearances and scoring an insane 3,135 points! He was also capped for Great Britain and England for a combined total of 45 times. 

His union carer was spent at Saracens from 2005-2009 where he made 28 appearances and was capped 8 times for England in 2007 where he also earned a World Cup runners-up medal

During his coaching career, he has been involved only with top teams. He spent 2 years with Saracens from 2010 to 2012. In 2011 he became an assistant coach for England up until 2015 and was the defence coach for the British & Irish Lions in 2013.

His coaching career in Ireland started as assistant to the iconic Joe Schmidt in 2016 and he then took over as head coach in 2020. 

Joe Schmidt left him a really strong team with amazing structures in place. He took a little while to settle in but has only grown from strength to strength. 

He has also had the best winning record of any Ireland coach since rugby turned professional in 1995. There was a short stint of 2 games for interim coach Les Kiss in 2013 where he had a 100% record but that doesn’t really count. 

The great Joe Schmidt had a 72% winning record while Andy Farrell’s record is nearly 82%! His Ireland team has had 31/38 wins and this included the Triple Crown in 2022 and 2023 and both a 6 Nations win and Grand Slam in 2023.

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Samoa are looking better and better with each passing week leading up to the World Cup. 

Their game against Ireland was especially impressive. On paper, they should not have come close but were actually unlucky to lose to the world #1. 

They were in the game all the way to the end with 3 silly mistakes costing them their chances in the final 4 minutes. 

If those types of mistakes can be overcome, they do have enough skill and heart in that team to cause upsets. 

In pool D, it looks like they are the most likely ones to go through with Argentina. England is dreadful and they aren’t showing any signs of turning that around. Japan has also been on a multiple-game losing streak and is a far cry from the iconic team from the 2019 World Cup. 

Their squad was also bolstered by the World Rugby ruling in favor of the island nations which saw many native Samoans returning after stints with top other international teams. 

Will they get to the quarter-finals? Probably.

Will they get to the semis? That is less likely, sadly.